Oil Updates - crude resumes slide on demand worries after UK rate hike

Oil Updates -  crude resumes slide on demand worries after UK rate hike
Brent futures slipped 51 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $73.76 a barrel, at 3:40 a.m. Saudi time (Shutterstock)
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Oil Updates - crude resumes slide on demand worries after UK rate hike

Oil Updates -  crude resumes slide on demand worries after UK rate hike

RIYADH: Oil prices fell for a second straight session and were headed for a weekly decline of more than 3 percent on Friday, as a higher-than-expected interest rate hike in Britain and warnings about looming rate rises in the US ignited concerns over demand, according to Reuters.

Brent futures slipped 51 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $73.76 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $69.09 at 3:40 a.m. Saudi time. 

“Recession fears mount again following central banks’ rate hikes and a hawkish Fed,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, adding that a stronger dollar was also weighing on prices.

An increase in the value of the dollar, which has risen 0.3 percent this week, can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Both crude benchmarks had dropped about $3 in the previous session after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point, sparking fears of an economic slowdown denting fuel demand.

The market is now waiting for the release of Purchasing Managers Indexes from around the world on Friday for a view on manufacturing activity and demand trends.

In the US, crude stocks posted a surprise drawdown in the last week, helped by strong export demand and low imports, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. However, gasoline and distillate inventories rose.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would move interest rates at a “careful pace” from here as policymakers edge toward ending their historic round of monetary policy tightening.

Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Fears of hikes by major central banks have clouded the fuel demand outlook for the rest of the year.

“Energy traders are worried that the Fed and friends might cripple economic growth in the second half of the year,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA. 


Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady

Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady
Updated 23 June 2023

Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady

Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady
  • MPC said international commodity prices were likely to continue declining

CAIRO: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its key overnight interest rates unchanged on Thursday, saying commodity prices appear to be falling and economic growth is likely to recover in the fiscal year that begins next week.
As expected, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the lending rate steady at 19.25 percent and the deposit rate at 18.25 percent. Not one of 17 analysts polled by Reuters on Monday had forecast a change.
“Leading indicators for 2023 Q1 point toward a slowdown of real GDP growth,” the MPC statement said. “Real GDP growth is expected to slow down in fiscal year 2022/23 compared to the previous fiscal year, before recovering thereafter.”
The MPC said international commodity prices were likely to continue declining.
Headline inflation surged to an annual 32.7 percent in May, just short of an record high, from 30.6 percent in April. Month-on-month, inflation jumped to 2.7 percent from 1.7 percent in April.
Economic growth meanwhile eased to 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 4.4 percent in the third quarter, the MPC said.
“Leading indicators for 2023 Q1 point toward a slowdown of real GDP growth.”
Expectations of a rate increase were dampened after President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi last week appeared to rule out any imminent devaluation of the currency, even though the pound has been trading at about 38 to the dollar on the black market compared with the official rate of 30.9 pounds.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, causing investors to withdraw billions of dollars from the Egyptian treasury market, the central bank has raised rates by a cumulative 1,000 basis points and allowed the currency to fall by half.


World Bank to offer repayment ‘pause’ to crisis-hit nations

World Bank to offer repayment ‘pause’ to crisis-hit nations
Updated 23 June 2023

World Bank to offer repayment ‘pause’ to crisis-hit nations

World Bank to offer repayment ‘pause’ to crisis-hit nations
  • New Global Financing Pact in Paris has seen calls for major reform of the nearly 80-year-old institutions

PARIS: The head of the World Bank said Thursday that the lender planned to introduce a “pause” mechanism for debtor countries in the event of them being hit by a crisis.
Ajay Banga told a summit on financing the fight against climate change that the multilateral lender would adopt a new approach that “significantly expands the World Bank’s toolkit.”
The most important measure would be offering “a pause on debt repayments so countries can focus on what matters when a crisis hits and stop worrying about the bill that is going come,” he added.
The idea has been promoted by the prime minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, who has become a leading champion for low-income countries as well as fellow low-lying island nations.
She has sought to highlight how heavily indebted developing countries are unable to respond to natural disasters, as well as international crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic or inflation sparked by Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Caribbean islands like hers are increasingly vulnerable to tropical storms which can devastate homes and property, as well as livelihoods linked to the vital tourism industry.
The World Bank, the sister organization of the International Monetary Fund, is a top public lender for countries to finance their infrastructure and other project.
The two-day Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris has seen calls for major reform of the nearly 80-year-old institutions, with French President Emmanuel Macron calling them “not completely suited” to tackle current challenges.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said: “It is clear that the international financial architecture has failed in its mission to provide a global safety net for developing countries.”


Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  

Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  
Updated 22 June 2023

Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  

Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  

RIYADH: The market capitalization of the Tadawul All Share Index surged to over $2.9 trillion in June, up from $420 million in 2015, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings.  

The firm suggested that the increase indicates solid economic fundamentals and positive investor sentiment in Saudi Arabia.

Tadawul and the Capital Market Authority have launched several initiatives to expand the capital market in recent years as the Kingdom seeks to diversify its economy in line with the Vision 2030 initiative. 

These included streamlining the listing process and making significant investments in market infrastructure. 

These institutions approved regulations to ease foreign investors’ access to Saudi capital markets and implemented policies to improve corporate governance standards and transparency.  

“Even if we were to exclude the contribution from the market capitalization of Saudi Aramco, market capitalization has almost doubled since then (2015),” said Dhruv Roy, credit analyst at S&P Global, in a statement. 

Saudi stocks gained international exposure in 2019 after being added to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones, and other indices.  

By market capitalization and trading volume, Tadawul is the biggest stock market in the Middle East and North Africa region.   

The initial public offering of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. in 2019 was a significant event, and several other Saudi entities have entered the equity market since then.   

S&P Global Credit Analyst Timucin Engin stated: “Given the significant economic transformation expectations and funding needs associated with Vision 2030, we expect Saudi debt market evolution to potentially outpace that seen in some other developed markets.”  

“Government-related entities, major financial institutions, and key blue-chip corporates will initially lead the way,” he added.  

The report, titled “Saudi Arabia’s Debt Market: Ready For Takeoff,” suggested a robust and high-quality local debt market is essential for the economy to grow and change and support the funding requirements stemming from large Vision 2030 projects.


UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024
Updated 22 June 2023

UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

RIYADH: A rebound in oil and non-oil activities is expected to help the UAE maintain its projected growth rate of 4.3 percent in 2024, the latest quarterly report from the apex bank showed.    
In its economic review report for the first quarter, the Central Bank of the UAE forecast the country’s oil and non-oil gross domestic product in 2024 will grow at 3.5 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.
The CBUAE said its decision to keep the 2024 growth forecast unchanged reflects the stability and adherence to the agreed-upon production levels in the oil market, contributing to a balanced and sustainable economic outlook.
While the UAE’s central bank has kept the emirate’s growth forecast unchanged for the next year, it reduced the projection for 2023 by 0.6 percentage points to 3.3 percent due to oil production cuts agreed among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, also known as OPEC+.   
The CBUAE noted that the UAE economy continued to grow steadily during the first three months of the year, reflecting a robust non-oil sector performance. 
It expects the non-oil sector to continue to support aggregate output, albeit at a more modest pace compared to 2022.
Following a solid performance in 2022 with a growth rate of 9.5 percent, supported by an average daily oil production of 3.1 million barrels, the oil GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 is estimated to have moderated to 3.1 percent year on year following the agreements of OPEC+.  
The report said the non-oil sector in the UAE is anticipated to have experienced a slightly lower growth rate in the first quarter of 2023, following a robust expansion of 7.2 percent in 2022.
However, the CBUAE revised its non-oil GDP growth projection for 2023 upward to 4.5 percent from 4.2 percent.  
“Performance in 2023 and 2024 is subject to the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, a faster than expected deceleration in global growth, further OPEC+ cuts or increases in oil production, and subdued production of other OPEC+ members,” the review stated.  
In 2022, the UAE experienced a substantial revenue increase of 596.8 billion dirhams ($162.4 billion).   
It represented a growth rate of 27 percent compared to the previous year, primarily attributed to higher total tax receipts and social contributions.
 


Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 

Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 
Updated 22 June 2023

Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 

Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index ended its trading on Thursday in the red, as it shed 7.19 points, or 0.06 percent, to close at 11,458.98.  

The exchange will remain closed from June 23 as a part of the Eid Al-Adha holidays and trading will resume on July 2.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.33 billion ($1.69 billion) as 95 stocks advanced, while 124 retracted.  

While the parallel market Nomu dropped by 1,118.48 points to close at 26,147.86, the MSCI Tadawul Index dipped slightly to end the day at 1,510.25.  

The best-performing stock of the day was First Milling Co. The firm, which debuted on Tadawul on Thursday, saw its share price rising by 17.50 percent to SR70.50. 

Other top performers were Abdulmohsen Alhokair Group for Tourism and Development and Al Mawarid Manpower Co., whose share prices edged up by 9.52 percent and 7.84 percent respectively.  

The worst performer of the day was Arabian Contracting Services Co. as its share price dipped by 8.25 percent to SR178.  

On the announcements front, Amana Cooperative Insurance Co. reported that it turned a profit of SR9.70 million in the first quarter of 2023 against a net loss of SR28.62 million during the same period a year ago.  

Sahara International Petrochemical Co., also known as Sipchem, announced that its board of directors had declared a 12.5 percent cash dividend, or SR1.25 per share, for the first half of 2023.  

Electrical Industries Co., in a Tadawul statement, said that its shareholders approved the board’s recommendation to raise capital by 25 percent through a one-for-four bonus share distribution. The company’s new capital after the share distribution will be SR562.50 million, while the current capital is SR450 million.