Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady

Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady
A general view of the new headquarters of the Ministry of Finance in the New Administrative Capital (NAC) east of Cairo, Egypt. (Reuters)
Short Url
Updated 11 sec ago

Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady

Egypt’s central bank keeps interest rates steady
  • MPC said international commodity prices were likely to continue declining

CAIRO: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its key overnight interest rates unchanged on Thursday, saying commodity prices appear to be falling and economic growth is likely to recover in the fiscal year that begins next week.
As expected, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the lending rate steady at 19.25 percent and the deposit rate at 18.25 percent. Not one of 17 analysts polled by Reuters on Monday had forecast a change.
“Leading indicators for 2023 Q1 point toward a slowdown of real GDP growth,” the MPC statement said. “Real GDP growth is expected to slow down in fiscal year 2022/23 compared to the previous fiscal year, before recovering thereafter.”
The MPC said international commodity prices were likely to continue declining.
Headline inflation surged to an annual 32.7 percent in May, just short of an record high, from 30.6 percent in April. Month-on-month, inflation jumped to 2.7 percent from 1.7 percent in April.
Economic growth meanwhile eased to 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 4.4 percent in the third quarter, the MPC said.
“Leading indicators for 2023 Q1 point toward a slowdown of real GDP growth.”
Expectations of a rate increase were dampened after President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi last week appeared to rule out any imminent devaluation of the currency, even though the pound has been trading at about 38 to the dollar on the black market compared with the official rate of 30.9 pounds.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, causing investors to withdraw billions of dollars from the Egyptian treasury market, the central bank has raised rates by a cumulative 1,000 basis points and allowed the currency to fall by half.


Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  

Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  
Updated 22 June 2023

Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  

Strong fundamentals sees TASI achieve market capitalization of $2.9tn: S&P  

RIYADH: The market capitalization of the Tadawul All Share Index surged to over $2.9 trillion in June, up from $420 million in 2015, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings.  

The firm suggested that the increase indicates solid economic fundamentals and positive investor sentiment in Saudi Arabia.

Tadawul and the Capital Market Authority have launched several initiatives to expand the capital market in recent years as the Kingdom seeks to diversify its economy in line with the Vision 2030 initiative. 

These included streamlining the listing process and making significant investments in market infrastructure. 

These institutions approved regulations to ease foreign investors’ access to Saudi capital markets and implemented policies to improve corporate governance standards and transparency.  

“Even if we were to exclude the contribution from the market capitalization of Saudi Aramco, market capitalization has almost doubled since then (2015),” said Dhruv Roy, credit analyst at S&P Global, in a statement. 

Saudi stocks gained international exposure in 2019 after being added to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones, and other indices.  

By market capitalization and trading volume, Tadawul is the biggest stock market in the Middle East and North Africa region.   

The initial public offering of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. in 2019 was a significant event, and several other Saudi entities have entered the equity market since then.   

S&P Global Credit Analyst Timucin Engin stated: “Given the significant economic transformation expectations and funding needs associated with Vision 2030, we expect Saudi debt market evolution to potentially outpace that seen in some other developed markets.”  

“Government-related entities, major financial institutions, and key blue-chip corporates will initially lead the way,” he added.  

The report, titled “Saudi Arabia’s Debt Market: Ready For Takeoff,” suggested a robust and high-quality local debt market is essential for the economy to grow and change and support the funding requirements stemming from large Vision 2030 projects.


UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024
Updated 22 June 2023

UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

RIYADH: A rebound in oil and non-oil activities is expected to help the UAE maintain its projected growth rate of 4.3 percent in 2024, the latest quarterly report from the apex bank showed.    
In its economic review report for the first quarter, the Central Bank of the UAE forecast the country’s oil and non-oil gross domestic product in 2024 will grow at 3.5 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.
The CBUAE said its decision to keep the 2024 growth forecast unchanged reflects the stability and adherence to the agreed-upon production levels in the oil market, contributing to a balanced and sustainable economic outlook.
While the UAE’s central bank has kept the emirate’s growth forecast unchanged for the next year, it reduced the projection for 2023 by 0.6 percentage points to 3.3 percent due to oil production cuts agreed among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, also known as OPEC+.   
The CBUAE noted that the UAE economy continued to grow steadily during the first three months of the year, reflecting a robust non-oil sector performance. 
It expects the non-oil sector to continue to support aggregate output, albeit at a more modest pace compared to 2022.
Following a solid performance in 2022 with a growth rate of 9.5 percent, supported by an average daily oil production of 3.1 million barrels, the oil GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 is estimated to have moderated to 3.1 percent year on year following the agreements of OPEC+.  
The report said the non-oil sector in the UAE is anticipated to have experienced a slightly lower growth rate in the first quarter of 2023, following a robust expansion of 7.2 percent in 2022.
However, the CBUAE revised its non-oil GDP growth projection for 2023 upward to 4.5 percent from 4.2 percent.  
“Performance in 2023 and 2024 is subject to the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, a faster than expected deceleration in global growth, further OPEC+ cuts or increases in oil production, and subdued production of other OPEC+ members,” the review stated.  
In 2022, the UAE experienced a substantial revenue increase of 596.8 billion dirhams ($162.4 billion).   
It represented a growth rate of 27 percent compared to the previous year, primarily attributed to higher total tax receipts and social contributions.
 


Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 

Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 
Updated 22 June 2023

Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 

Closing bell: Saudi main index closes week in red ahead of Eid holidays 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index ended its trading on Thursday in the red, as it shed 7.19 points, or 0.06 percent, to close at 11,458.98.  

The exchange will remain closed from June 23 as a part of the Eid Al-Adha holidays and trading will resume on July 2.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.33 billion ($1.69 billion) as 95 stocks advanced, while 124 retracted.  

While the parallel market Nomu dropped by 1,118.48 points to close at 26,147.86, the MSCI Tadawul Index dipped slightly to end the day at 1,510.25.  

The best-performing stock of the day was First Milling Co. The firm, which debuted on Tadawul on Thursday, saw its share price rising by 17.50 percent to SR70.50. 

Other top performers were Abdulmohsen Alhokair Group for Tourism and Development and Al Mawarid Manpower Co., whose share prices edged up by 9.52 percent and 7.84 percent respectively.  

The worst performer of the day was Arabian Contracting Services Co. as its share price dipped by 8.25 percent to SR178.  

On the announcements front, Amana Cooperative Insurance Co. reported that it turned a profit of SR9.70 million in the first quarter of 2023 against a net loss of SR28.62 million during the same period a year ago.  

Sahara International Petrochemical Co., also known as Sipchem, announced that its board of directors had declared a 12.5 percent cash dividend, or SR1.25 per share, for the first half of 2023.  

Electrical Industries Co., in a Tadawul statement, said that its shareholders approved the board’s recommendation to raise capital by 25 percent through a one-for-four bonus share distribution. The company’s new capital after the share distribution will be SR562.50 million, while the current capital is SR450 million. 


Saudi Arabia’s financial market ranks 3rd among G20 in competitiveness indicators

Saudi Arabia’s financial market ranks 3rd among G20 in competitiveness indicators
Updated 22 June 2023

Saudi Arabia’s financial market ranks 3rd among G20 in competitiveness indicators

Saudi Arabia’s financial market ranks 3rd among G20 in competitiveness indicators

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s financial market has advanced seven places to the third position in the competitiveness indicators among G20 nations this year, revealed Switzerland-based International Institute for Management Development in its latest report.

According to the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook for 2023, the Kingdom’s performance epitomizes the ongoing efforts of the Capital Market Authority to implement global best practices. 

The country ranked first in the corporate boards index among G20 countries. It stood second in capital markets, shareholders’ rights and venture capital indices. 

The yearbook further revealed that Saudi Arabia ranked third globally in the stock market capitalization index. It surpassed advanced nations like Japan, India, Germany, the UK, China and the US.  

The Kingdom also topped all Arab nations participating in the report in nine of the 12 indices. 

Its achievement results from CMA’s continued efforts to improve and develop the capital market sector by implementing relevant global best practices.

The authority was instrumental in approving the regulations for securities exchanges, depository centers and Shariah governance in other capital market institutions.

Its role in developing the Companies Law for listed joint stock companies improved the business environment, making it conducive to additional investments.

The Saudi capital market recorded a flurry of initial public offerings in 2022, with 49 listings and SR40 billion ($10.66 billion) raised in equity capital, the highest number in any single year, barring 2019, when Saudi Arabian Oil Co. was listed.  

“Saudi Arabia aims to establish an advanced capital market that is open to the world and capable of attracting local and international capital, and that plays an efficient and pivotal role in meeting the economy’s funding requirements,” the authority said in a statement.


Turkey delivers big hike to 15% but still underwhelms 

Turkey delivers big hike to 15% but still underwhelms 
Updated 22 June 2023

Turkey delivers big hike to 15% but still underwhelms 

Turkey delivers big hike to 15% but still underwhelms 

ISTANBUL: Turkey’s central bank hiked its key rate by 650 basis points to 15 percent on Thursday and said it would go further in a reversal of President Tayyip Erdogan’s low-rates policy, although the post-election tightening missed expectations and the lira fell. 

In its first meeting under new Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, the bank changed course after years of loose policy in which the one-week repo rate had dropped to 8.5 percent from 19 percent in 2021 despite soaring inflation. 

Analysts said the move suggested Erkan might have limited room to aggressively tackle inflation under Erdogan’s watch. The median estimate in a Reuters poll was for a rate hike to 21 percent. 

Thirty minutes after the rate hike — Turkey’s first since early 2021 — the lira suddenly began to tumble, touching an all-time low of 24.31 versus the dollar. 

The central bank’s policy committee said the tightening “will be further strengthened as much as needed in a timely and gradual manner until a significant improvement in the inflation outlook is achieved.” 

Striking a more hawkish tone than a month earlier, it said it raised rates “in order to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor inflation expectations, and to control the deterioration in pricing behavior.”  

Annual inflation was just below 40 percent in May after touching a 24-year high above 85 percent in October last year. The central bank said inflation will come under further pressure. 

It added that it will gradually “simplify and improve the existing micro- and macroprudential framework” to improve market mechanisms and macro stability — suggesting some of the dozens of regulations adopted since late 2021 could be rolled back. 

Limited room for maneuver 

Erdogan had urged rate cuts over the last two years which sparked a late-2021 currency crisis. The lira lost 44 percent in 2021 and 30 percent last year, despite the central bank’s efforts to counter forex demand by using its forex reserves. 

After his election victory last month, Erdogan signaled he was ready to backtrack on economic policy in appointing Mehmet Simsek, who is highly regarded by markets, as finance minister and Erkan, a former Wall Street banker, as central bank chief. 

Erdogan said last week he approved the steps Simsek would take with the central bank, suggesting he had given the green light to rate hikes. 

The policy decision could indicate that “Governor Erkan has limited room for maneuver in restoring orthodoxy in monetary policy,” said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. 

“One could argue that it will take time to restore shattered confidence, but it would be more efficient to exceed expectations if Governor Erkan wants to convince investors that she is in charge of monetary policy and not President Erdogan,” he added.  

Most economists in the Reuters poll expected further rate hikes this year, with the year-end forecast median at 30 percent. The central bank’s key rate remains below deposit rates that reach up to 40 percent and real rates are still deeply negative. 

The central bank’s net reserves fell to a record low of negative $5.7 billion last month. They rebounded as Ankara loosened its grip on the forex market this month, sending the lira to all-time lows and bringing its losses to 23 percent this year. 

The lira depreciation has stoked inflation since 2021, sending it to a 24-year high of 85.5 percent in October last year. 

Some analysts have expressed doubt about Erdogan’s commitment to abandoning his unorthodoxy, citing examples of his previous shifts to orthodox policy only to quickly change his mind. 

Authorities hope foreign investors and hard currency will return after a years-long exodus, potentially reducing the central bank’s need to intervene to keep the lira stable.